The next Budget will be like nothing we have seen in a long long time!

I am not very good at maths. There I said it. I mean It is not like I didn’t try, and know all of my times tables (up to 12 x12 obviously) and simple maths is fine, but as soon as someone starts talking about quadratic equations and square roots, polynomials or anything that cannot be answered by a plain boring calculator (or your fingers) I have to go and look it up in Mathematics for Dummies… Which is kinda funny when you find out what my absolute favourite part of politics and the political process is: THE BUDGET!! Reading the Appropriation Bills, or more simply put, the Governments outlining of its proposed spending plan for the next financial year (July 1 to June 30) is my upmost favourite thing to do. And it sometimes coincides with my birthday. Can you say best birthday present ever??? The 2014-15 budget has not actually been released yet, but this is what you can expect.

For the last few years, the Federal Government has been at the mercy hands of the Australian Labor Party, and so the federal budget has reflected their views and ideals for the nation’s future. In 2012, the Treasurer Wayne Swan’s budget speech read like an optimistic novel which looked to “spread the benefits of the boom” while still finding room to finance the ALPs core promises on education (the government invested 38.8 billion into higher education), health and the environment. In 2013, Wayne Swan’s speech was dubbed a “Labor budget to its bootstraps” implying that they were trying to reconnect with the electorate and their declining voter base, ahead of the 2013 Federal Election, which they lost less than 5 months later.

This year however, Tony Abbott and his team will have their first opportunity in over 6 years to be able to control outright where government money is spent. While the essential process is the same, punters already have the feeling that this budget will be quite different to anything we have seen in quite a few years with some saying it will be a “horror budget”. Abbott and his partner in crime Hockey, have alluded to the harsh realities of what is to come and has many people running scared. Alleged cuts to a whole range of areas in an attempt to get the budget back into a “sustainable surplus”. Since being elected both Abbott and Hockey have preached that their budget will be tight and many predict we are in for a tough few years.

One of the things to expect from the Australian budget process is the fake secrecy surrounding the days immediately before the budget speech (on the second Tuesday in May). Last year’s budget had so many leaks, it was an effort reading the papers trying to find out anything you didn’t already know! While it is still unclear the extent to which the Coalition will leak its own leaks, my guess is it will leak the some of the cuts so not to completely and inextricably freak out the electorate. The government will more than likely keep its sweeteners close to its chest, so they can whip them out in an attempt to soften the blow.  Furthermore, it is Abbott’s paid parental leave scheme that will keep people watching, so they can find out once and for all, how it will unfold as well as any changes to the NDIS and Education funding.

When the budget gets released it will be the first real piece of legislation that will give people a chance to size up the Abbott Government, as up until this point it has been all talk and no substance as they get a grip on the state of the economy and find out really what has been going on straight from the mouth of department heads. Furthermore, this budget will give everyone a good indication of what to expect in terms of a legislative program for Abbott’s first term in power, especially given the Senate’s changeover and an influx of micro and independent Senators as of July 1. Can anyone say party? I sure can!

Polling Booth Official - The Inside Word!

The only thing people hate more than their least desired party winning an election, is if no one wins the election. On March 15, I spoke to a Liberal member, handing out how to vote cards in the district of Wait, who said they honestly didn’t care who won, so long as we ended up with a government leading in the majority. Well we were all in for a shock, not only did her party not win, we also have a minority government at the hands of Geoff Brock, the Member for Frome (read Member for Port Pirie and surrounding areas).

To become a polling booth official, you know the people who cross your name off and give you your ballot papers when you come to vote? Yeah well to become one of those people you have to have training, have a passion for reciting the alphabet at warp seeds and want to initial your name over and over…. All day long. There is a lot you have to be responsible for as well, I mean just look at Western Australia; someone, somewhere along the lines stuffed up and lots and lots of ballots were lost, and now the entire state has to go back and vote for the Senate on April 5. I know some people will wonder what the big deal is, but if less than 20 people had voted differently in the Senate, 2 different people would have been elected Senators… 20 people!

The day started at 6.30am arriving at the polling booth to help set up the little booths you actually vote in, as well as to assemble the boxes for the ballots to go into. There was a palpable hub of energy inside the booth as we knew that the day ahead, was going to be long but very exciting. Polling started at 8am, and as we watched the seconds ticking away we could see the queue stretching back almost 300 meters!  When we first opened the doors my job was to sort the people who were from the District and who were voting outside the district, this was important because if you don’t vote in your district you have to do a Declaration vote as opposed to an Ordinary vote.

As the hours wore on, I became friends with the people handing out how to vote cards for all the different political parties. You hear horror stories of people refusing to talk to other people from opposing parties, and even abusing voters for not taking a how to vote card….. That didn’t happen where I was, instead they had a party, the Liberals supplied the TimTams, the ALP supplied lunch, the Xenophon Group looked old and the Greens looked scared of talking to people.

Being in the heartland of Wait (Liberal Member Martin Hamilton-Smiths district) it was almost comical to pick out the non-liberal voter, and as the day wore on, the how to vote card handouters engaged in a game of spot the ALP/Liberal/Green voter with surprising accuracy.

When the doors closed at the end of the day the real fun began. Due to the increasing risks associated with counting votes after a long day of handing out ballots, the counting is done in steps to avoid any mishaps. Starting with the House of Assembly ballots, unfolding and separating the formal from the informal votes. While this is going on, other people are unfolding the huge, ginormous Legislative Council white papers. The House of Assembly ballots are then sorted into piles (the amount of piles depends on how many people are contesting the seat) grouped together by first preference votes, and then are handed over to the Polling Booth Manager to distribute preferences until there are only two parties left (usually Liberal and Labor but not always). Counting then can begin for the Legislative Council separating votes into formal and informal, above and below the line until you get piles from A to X up and down the floor. While the night did not produce a conclusive result, the experiences and lessons learnt from a day on a polling booth will enlighten even the most apathetic voter to the sacredness of voting and elections.

 

Election Night

All our dreams have come true! Political Junkies were spoilt for choice tonight, with two elections being contested, the Tasmanian ALP lead Government and the South Australian ALP Government were up for re-election. Now while the result seemed inevitable you can’t always judge an election by its opinion polls and this evening was no different. A landslide and a hung parliament. Two vastly different results from two vastly different places. I am sure the Tasmanian election will be talked about in the days to come, it is the incredible results coming out of South Australia that has the nation captivated.

With the election result still in jeopardy, only one thing is for certain, us South Aussies, are a strange bunch of people! Who would have thought, after what some call the most disastrous parliament of all time – at a federal level from 2010-2013, that we could potentially be having another hung parliament in the House of Assembly!

 Many just thought that after the ALP's loss at the Federal Election last September, they would just shrivel up and fall in a heap and that the Libs would rule supreme at this election, but apparently not. ABC commentators and interviewees tonight have been spruking the power of the negative campaign the Premier ran against the Liberal Leader and his party, but is this close result something inherently deeper? Jay Weatherill would like you to believe that this close outcome was the states way of rebelling against the Liberal Federal Government, but I don’t know if I agree. For a state that has seen some sad times in the recent months, it almost seems as though people are not ready to let go of the protective womb the ALP have woven around us. For years and years they have been our pillars, our guideposts, and to have them ripped out from under us, I think people are reacting badly. That is not to say the relationship between the people and the Rann/Weatherill Government has always been smooth sailing, it is more a reflection on the fact South Aussies are notorious for rejecting change at every opportunity. That is not to say that when everything is said and done, when all the votes are counted, and then double counted, along with pre-poll votes, postal votes and voters voting outside their electorate the people may have voted for change. The thing is, even if the government changes hands, it has changed hands by the smallest of margins and so whoever forms government, will have their work cut out for them in the next four years. Huge Suburb unemployment, rising taxes and cost of living pressures, and a stagnating economy, as well as a great chance of needing support from independents to pass legislation – who would even want the job?? I joke, I joke, but seriously it will be a tough gig for either party.

Anyway, stay tuned as many votes still need to be counted, as it currently stands 22 ALP 21 LIB 2  IND, election night may be reaching a close but the results will be a while away yet – and then for the fun part, piecing the state back together!

 

Less than a week to go!

Less than a week. That’s right people, is less than one week, the fine people of South Australia (and actually the pretty fine people of Tasmania as well) are counting down the hours (well nearly!!) until they have to get out their favourite pencils and mark those ballot papers once again! With Premier Jay and Opposition Leader Steven out pounding the Adelaidian pavement, drumming up support and scouring votes, I am turning my attention to another pressing political matter COUNTING DOWN THE DAYS TO GO!!

Looking at the main issues being spoken about during this campaign, it has mainly been to do with State issues. Our pollies are promising more money, more resources and even the kitchen sink, if they think it will give them a leg up on the other side. In the name of winning votes, pollies have plastered their face on stobie polls, on billboards and subject themselves to the humiliation of standing on the side of busy highways in order to capture that extra few votes. Upgrades to certain troublesome roads, cutting/capping/halting council rates as well as future infrastructure and building projects are just some of the enticements on offer during the last week of campaigning.

The general consensus is that people are swayed by what they read, what they hear, what they see and what they experience when it comes who to put before whom on the ballot paper. Obviously there are rusted on, or hard core Liberal, Greens and Labor voters but an increasing number of people are becoming swinging or non-affiliated voters with a number of Independents in the mix at the election. Probably due to the increasing centralisation of the major parties on many issues, people are finding it harder and harder to pick a side and stick to it. Furthermore when elections roll around, there is so much negativity and so many games being played, that people are at a loss about which party truly deserve to be in power. Now yes, I guess that mainstream media is kinda, maybe, partly to blame but with the internet being the wonderful magical thing that it is, finding out information is always only a click and a few key strokes away. But many people are still undecided, if the circumstances were different the choice might be easier, but with such a long period of Labor rule it seems that the Liberals are finally making a comeback.

In terms of the election on Saturday, this final week of campaigning will be crucial to the end result. As it stands, the Liberal Party seem to be out in the lead by a fraction of a whisker, but if you referred to Newspoll last week, the result would look something like another hung parliament. Something, despite it being a highly successful federal parliament, in terms of legislation passing- it is doubtful, many people would like to see it again in the near future. That being said, the likelihood of there being the same amount of criticism placed upon the Leader of the Government would seem remote, at the current stage.

Whatever the result on Saturday, one this is certain the government will have a hard time convincing voters to keep them in when their term expires in four years’ time as unemployment will be one of the hotly debated issues in the coming years…

 

The Leaders Debate!

A debate is a debate, is a debate, is a debate. And a State leader’s debate on February 17 was no different. The leaders of the two major parties, Jay Weatherill for the incumbent Labor Government and Steven Marshall for the Liberal Opposition fought it out trying to influence the voting public of South Australia. The election will take place on the 15^th of March, a mere 4 weeks away, and already the gloves are off and the politicking has begun.

While the Labor Government has created a reputation spanning the last 12 years the Liberal Opposition has been a relatively new creation. When the Government oozed confidence and composure at the hands of Mike Rann and then Jay Weatherill, the instability within the Liberal Party prevented them from gaining office. For many a year, the Liberals mimicked the Federal Labor Party with leadership tiffs and attempted spills the South Australian public were not keen enough to trust them with the precious keys to the state.

That, so it seems is all likely to change, if opinion polls and the general consensus on the streets is correct. Almost 20 points in front of the government, Marshall is positioning himself a worthy leader for a State that in the last few years has gone from strength to strength in terms of new infrastructure and global recognition. Named as one of 18 Smart Cities by National Geographic, listed on Lonely Planets top 10 cities to visit in 2014 and the accolades continue Adelaide is fast becoming a tourist hotspot. That is not to say we are without faults, Public Transport, Mental Health, relationships in Rural areas and taxes are all issues that will play a major role in voters decision in the next few weeks.

But the writing may already be on the wall for Jay and his team. Whether that be a continuing result from the federal election last September or the ‘its time’ factor coming to rear its ugly head once again, one this is for certain the Labor Government have its work cut out for them, if they want to be returned for a fourth term in power.  While if the Liberal get into power, they will have their work cut out for them, trying to convince voters they have what it takes to not only ‘fix’ the state but to work with the Federal Government to get the best results for the state and not just follow party lines.

The Leaders debate not only brought up issues closely related to the state, but that are also (or are tried to be) echoed at a Federal Level. Women in Politics, budget surpluses and deficits and unemployment are major concerns and worries for people from all walks of life. The fact major parties say they want to see more women in politics, but yet they are scarcely chosen for safe seats during preselections, although the Opposition Leader was quick to point out the plethora of women in his shadow ministry – a stark contrast to that in the Federal Cabinet. Furthermore with the closure of car manufacturing in Australia, entire suburbs in SA look set to lose the major employment  option, which will have catastrophic effects of families if the government, whomever it ends up being, doesn’t not have a foolproof plan ready to put in place. Politics can be all fun and games, but when it comes down to people lives and families people need to choose the best option for them.

With the fierce campaigning going on already, the table is set for some hard core political action in the coming weeks, and like always I will be here ready to bring you up to speed on all the important stuff, so stay tuned!

 

Do we need Electoral Reform in the Senate? Yes we do!

It was the day after sitting, and all through the house, not a pollie was stirring not even the house! They said there was a chance of showers in our nation’s capital but the air was humid and the flag hung still limp. After a quick trip to the High Court of Australia, were I was able to listen to an appeal proceed I was back for round three! Inside Parliament house there was a quietness that had not been present the last two days, and the formality of governing was not as distinct. Nevertheless, when the guard stationed at the entrance of the building recognises you from your previous visits you know you have serious political issues!

My destination was not the House of Representatives, but the Main Senate Committee Room, placed between the House and the Senate and was for a very special reason. The Senate, during the year host a number of Occasional Lectures, covering a wide range of political topics, and Yesterdays happened to be given by Antony “Mr Elections” Green on whether “Is it time for Fundamental Review of the Senates Electoral System?” Antony Green for all those not in the know, is one of Australia’s leading Psephologists and Election commentator for the ABC. As well as creating the election program which is used for every State and Federal Election as well as by-elections, he is a wealth of electoral political knowledge.

Since the 2013 Federal Election on September 7, many political commentators and reporters have been talking about the need for electoral reform in the Senate, because as of July first a record number of micro parties will be the balance of power in the Upper House. One of the more outspoken commentators regarding this matter has been Antony Green who advocates for simplicity rather than complexity when it comes to the way in which Senators are elected given they are elected for 6 year terms (rather than the 3 in the House of Reps) and in New South Wales 110 candidates contested 6 seats. Greens argument that even the most competent voter, one who had avidly studied preference flows could not have predicted the Senates outcome. Furthermore in Western Australia, where the Senate Outcome is still being contested, if less than 20 voters IN THE STATE had voted differently two different Senators would have been elected.

Green goes on to further back his claims, by using the example of the Liberals and the Liberal Democrats in New South Wales (but I know the same issue was in South Australia). Voters who wanted to vote for the Abbott lead Liberal Party when in fact they voted for the Liberal Democrats as they were at the beginning of the ballot paper. Green further states that in forcing voters to either choose backroom deals (above the line voting) or to be subjected to filling in up to 110 boxes is not acceptable anymore.

Saying that however, Green does provide possible solutions, however some would be more popular than others in the electorate. Among the more popular options, is optional preferential above or below the line. Above the line would require voters to list parties from one to N or below the line to a threshold of perhaps 50 or 2/3 the candidates and if the preferences need to flow longer then, that ballot would be disqualified. This option is quite popular in the community, however does pose some problems. Another solution would be to make senate candidates (or parties) achieve a minimum quota threshold on first preference votes to ensure that micro parties who receive under say 5% of the vote could not eventually get a seat.

One thing Green said is certain, is change will happen, as the current system is unmanageable for modern day politics in its current form, but whatever form it takes it must “ensure the Senate system reflects the will of the electorate” rather than backroom deals and “voters must have the power over preferences”.

Furthermore, in a democracy voters are the key, as it is them who ultimately decide who will make and create the laws in which we are need to live by. Therefore there is simply no point in a voting system which deters voters from being informed and when simplicity is the key complexities need to be avoided at all costs. 

My Day in the House of Reps - Day Two!

Well, they say no two days are the same in the hallowed halls of Parliament House, and I can attest to that first hand. Having spent the better part of two consecutive days sitting in the Public Gallery in the House of Representatives chamber, there are only three things I can say stayed the same on both days. The pollies coming and going, the press gallery journos coming in for the hour and a half of Question Time and me sitting directly across from Annabel Crabb during Question Time (Whoop Whoop!!). Other than that, my two days could not have been more different – but both equally incredible.

Today the weather was overcast, but still the Parliament building stood tall and proud. Heading straight up the left side of the building and cloaking my bag, electronics, pens and paper I headed into the green chamber once again. Hearing from the Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten, The Member for Lindsay Fiona Scott, The Member for Hinkler Keith Pitt and others, I could not get over, this is what government and the real workings of parliament look like. Yes there are disagreements, fights, differing of opinion and party lines but at the end of the day it is the elected members, chosen by the electorate that make up the true essence of politics, giving speeches and debating legislation.

After being allowed back into the chamber for Question Time (the public galleries are cleared from 1pm -1.30pm), the public gets to listen to 90 second statements, which seek to bring to light any issues members feel are important. Today they ranged from Cervical Cancer to the Adelaide Heatwave to the Toyota job losses to surf lifesavers. While I have always known they have existed today I found a real appreciation for them, as they allow members to speak on important issues while keeping the reports to concise little bits. I found it an informative exercise and I think that the public should be more aware these statements exist given the overall lacking interest in all things political by the general population.

By golly Question Time was fun! After yesterday’s less than impressive show, I was hesitant to go back and do it all again, but I am so glad I did. On the 6^th Anniversary of Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s sorry speech the House of Reps stood to attention.  After indulgencies from the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition, it was time to get down to business. The sedate boring Question Time was nowhere to be seen, and within the first 15 minutes the topics of job losses, the new rising unemployment rate over 6% and the strength of the economy had all been raised. As well as the heightened use of Standing Order 94A which saw Labor Front Benches, Kate Ellis Member for Adelaide, Anthony Albanese Member for Grayndler and Catherine King Member for Ballarat all booted within the first 15 minutes. 10 Minutes later Mark Dreyfus Member for Isaacs booted, and before the session had ended The Members for Moreton, Gellibrand and Charlton were also forced to vacate the chamber. Although, if I am honest I was quite surprised many more Opposition Members were not booted. A question from the sole Greens Member Adam Bandt, Member for Melbourne, to the Prime Minister today broke the Liberal/National and Labor bickering but not for long. Further exciting the atmosphere, the Member for Kennedy made a late appearance in the Chamber sitting next to Independent Andrew Wilkie.

Having watched many many Question Times live streamed from inside classes, libraries and homes over the years, I find I am conflicted as to whether or not it was better being there in person or live streaming it and being able to converse with people all over the country at the same time. One of the many highlights to my day was sitting next to a man who smuggled a pencil into the chamber and let me borrow it during the session – all I can say is I am glad I was not kicked out!

My two days spent in the House of Representatives was well worth the trip and I seriously cannot wait to do it all over again!