The 2013/2014 Budget

I have never woken up the morning after a big night hangover (or even a bad headache), but waking this morning I wondered if last night really happened. Admittedly I did only have 4 hours sleep, watching all the Budget commentary, analysis and interviews before and after Treasurer Wayne Swan's budget speech. It was all fun and games, as Journalists, Economists and political commentators were let out of Lockdown, we knew things were about to get worse. Budget leaks just prior to the speech hinted at the abolishment of the Baby Bonus and all indications were that the cuts would not stop there. Last May the narrative coming from the Labor Government went along the lines of 'spreading the benefits of the [mining] boom' and 'a fair go for all Australians', this May it seemed like it was more a Budget of legacy with hints of regret, sadness and pain.

It is official, not only were there no real election 'sweeteners' in the 2013/2014 Budget, the tone and mood surrounding the documents are at best gloomy and more accurately one of sadness and inevitable doom. Last night many commentators compared the new Budget to that of a funeral, sad and 'sombre' Jessica Irvine said, and almost everybody seemed to be fixated on what was being cut, altered and changed rather than the limited high points the Government wished. It seems that the forward estimates in the 2012/2013 Budget were highly optimistic, and given the continued concerns over the Global Economy for the next Financial Year, the Government have chosen to focus on School Education, NDIS which will now be called DisabilityCare and Roads and Rail rather than the 'S' word (surplus). 

Even last year, the large majority of Economists were saying the need for a budget surplus was more a political state of mind rather than an imperative part of the immediate future in Australia. It should not be high on the lists of priorities, they said, Politicians only see a budget surplus as a way of gaining votes in the upcoming election year they said, and last night it seems the Government finally agreed. Given all indications in the Opinion Polls suggest the Government will lose out considerably in the September 14 election, the Budget was one that would assist people in the future and set the groundwork for the Labor legacy in the future. In his speech Wayne Swan said that they (the Labor Government) made the 'choice to keep our economy strong and to invest in the future' and the Governments choice of programs to spend money, reflect that. Investment in Cancer care, the NDIS and increases in Health Funding by 40% since they gained office, show the Gillard Governments priorities quite clearly. Schools, DisabilityCare and infrastructure. 

Politically the general consensus in Australia, is the Federal Government have lied, failed to deliver and gone back on their promises. Budget Surplus, Laptops in schools, Budget Surplus, Carbon Tax, Budget Surplus, Mineral Tax, Carbon Tax did I mention Budget Surplus?? I could go on. Despite the sound of doom ringing in my ears as I listened to the Budget Speech, one thing was clear, Wayne Swan had a message and he got that across. A valued friend of mine once said, that if you can not capture the essence of your speech in the first 5 minutes you will have lost your audience anyway, and no one will care what you say. Last night the Treasurer did just that, in the first 5 minutes he said, Schools, DisabilityCare and infrastructure. The Australian people may not recognise what the Labor legacy is until it is too late, but there it is folks Education, DisabilityCare and Road and Rail Infrastructure. That will be how the Gillard Government is remembered.

Early this morning Prime Minister Julia Gillard introduced the DisabilityCare legislation into the House of Representatives. One of the beautiful things about our political system is bipartisan support.  All political parties may not fundamentally agree on everything - hell if they did life would be boring - but, sometimes an issue arises and it just has to be fixed. Regardless of your political ideology, Disability will have affected the lives of someone in your family, one of your friends or someone in your social group. Disability does not discriminate it can affect us all in some way or another.  In her speech the Prime Minister said, 'In March, we gave it a place in our nation's laws. Today we inscribe it in our nation's finances. DisabilityCare Australia starts in seven weeks - and there will be no turning back.'  No turning back, pretty big sentiments for a Government facing inevitable doom right? No one knows what the future holds, everyone wishes their future was bright and full of joy, and for those living with a disability that light just got even brighter. 

Tomorrow we will see the Leader of the Opposition give the Budget Speech in Reply, a chance for the nearly voting public to see the alternative Government in action. Does anybody care? Will anybody watch? If you do, can you bring the popcorn? 

The budget is approaching!

Since my last blog post so much has happened in the wonderful world of Australian Politics. It is hard to know when to start, the NDIS legislation has been in the news quite a bit as some States have signed on, including Tasmania. Also Tony Abbott released his Industrial Relations policy yesterday and Prime Minister Gillard went on the ABC's Q&A program on Monday night. However, given we have just entered into the month of May there are bigger fish to fry, and so, let me begin by telling you a little story. 

Wednesday just gone, was the May 8th. A year ago on May 8th saw Wayne Swan give his Budget Speech for 2012. The highlights we saw include; spending on Dental Care, the Tax free threshold increasing from $6000 to $18000 and the introduction of the School Kids Bonus $410 and $820 for primary and secondary students respectively. However we also saw cuts in Defence and Foreign Aid spending, decreases to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and further deferment on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG's). I remember that day like it was Yesterday.  

I had Australian and International Politics that fateful Tuesday, they sang Happy Budget day to me as it was my 17th Birthday and we had a Budget day cake. I remember being so very excited something major was happening on my birthday. But I also remember way too much from the budget papers as well. The next day I wrote that the narrative the Labor Party was trying to portray a 'fair go for all Australians' budget, and that it would be 'spreading the benefits of the [mining] boom around'. It was aimed at taking money from the people who had higher incomes and redistributing it to those who were not so fortunate.  The sticking themes within the Budget, were still to get it into surplus by 2013, and that the Clean Energy Futures legislation was not going to end the world. What I guess I am trying to say is, overall the Budget breakdown seemed quite optimistic given the uncertain economic times that laid ahead. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but my notes from the rest of the Budget week show even in May last year the Treasurer was concerned about a number of external factors. The high Australian dollar (which has still not fallen even after the RBA cut the Targeted Cash Rate again to 2.75% on Tuesday) was a issue, as was the Global Economic Outlook given the problems within some European Economies and the overall Global Slowdown on trade and exports. Therefore, it is with hesitant excitement I wait for next Tuesday night. 

Given the economic conditions have not really improved since last years Outlook,  all indications suggest that treasurer wayne swan has his work cut out for him. come tuesday night, he will try and convince the Australian public that the labor party is still the best option for government come september 14. furthermore as last years treasury predictions were highly optimistic many critics of the labor party will see tuesday nights budget as the nail in the coffin for an already dismal government. however that being said, advocates for the labor party hold their breath at what next wednesday will bring when the opposition leader tony abbott delivers his Budget Speech in reply. The 2012 Budget reply speech was more a speech on the labor party's downfalls rather than a position of alternative government. However, given all pols suggest a coalition wipeout come the election it will be interesting to see the differences in mr Abbott's speech from last year given the alternative government will more than likely be in power by the end of the year.

In the last few weeks, the Treasurer and the Labor Party have been on a path of trying to win support for their Budget. All indications suggest that it will be brutal and will begin to reflect the economic turmoil the rest of the world has seen since the GFC in 2008-09. While Australia for the most part came out unscathed from the GFC, our dealings with the rest of the world and poorer than expected economic figures really do fall in line with how most of the rest of the world have been feeling since going into recession. Polls show politically the fall out of not delivering a surplus will be huge for Labor, but will a Coalition Government be able to bring the Budget back to Surplus ASAP, while still repealing the 'Carbon Tax' and the MRRT? Unless they get a majority in both the Upper and Lower House the answer is probably not. But Nevertheless they will try. 

It is now only 4 sleeps to go until Parliament resumes and the Budget is introduced to the Lower House. So people get excited and HAPPY BUDGET DAY for Tuesday.