A question I have been pondering lately has been to do with the left side of politics, The Greens and the ALP. Should the contemporary ALP become more 'green'? Does Labor's future depend upon reconciliation with The Green political agenda or can Labor take over Green Issues? Dennis Glover in A Red Green Coalition, stated that Labor must take environmental politics more seriously and The Greens must take electoral realities more seriously, presumably if either are to survive in the long term. While I see it quite unlikely that either will be eliminated from the Australian political scene any time soon, it does pose questions around the post 2010 Federal Election minority government agreement and more importantly about the future of Australia's political left.
While I am obviously no expert when it comes to the ALP or The Greens, it does not take much to look at the current political scene and see what some would call generously describe as chaos, not just in terms of ALP leadership but also in terms of policy ideology. While not trying to outright bag the ALP, they seem to have lost focus, they undoubtedly seem poll driven and geared to winning elections - at any cost. Which I mean is fine and in an election year, even expected, but what the party fail to recognise are the changing desires of the electorate, something Kevin Rudd is only just beginning to realise, coming out earlier this year pro marriage equality. While they claim to be part of the 'left' , a progressive party of sorts, they fail to see their once solid voter base, unions and union movements are scarcely as influential as they once were. Once every so often will a union conduct a full out strike, but I have read countless articles and journals which quote union membership to be falling, and even more importantly active union action among members to be falling. Regardless of the outcome at the election in just under a week, I think there will be a fair bit of soul searching within the ALP in the foreseeable future to try and redefine their core voter base.
The Greens have the left of politics pretty much in the bag, I mean they are pro choice, pro onshore processing, pro carbon tax, pro marriage equality, for voluntary Euthanasia and the list could go on. The point is if the ALP want to be regarded as a major party of the left or even center left, one should be able to identify most of those sentiments with that party as well. Although if outlining the traditional policies of the ALP you would also include, pro protection, pro republic, secular and pro environment some of which are core policies values but not all. The minor parties have an easier time finding their niche in politics because they know they are only looking to satisfy a proportion of the population, and increasingly so. Hence it is The Greens who are winning out, increasing their polling numbers on the back of the rate of voters fleeing the mess that is called the Australian Labor Party - or so their current television commercial wants us to believe. The commercial which has 'everyday' people talking about voting for The Greens given 'Tony Abbott scares me' and Labor "aren't serious" or are "disappointing". More and more, in conversations I am having with friends and at work people seem to think that The Greens will be better than either of the major parties.
The major parties on the other hand, in recent years have decided that in order to win government (outright) they can't be seen to be alienating any sector of society, from farmers and workers to small business owners and families regardless of their once, core voter base. In general terms both the ALP and the Coalition have differences in their Asylum Seeker policies, Malaysia or Nauru, buy the boats, turn the boats around, more money, less money blah blah blah! However, fundamentally both parties wanted them any place that is not here, in our own backyard. The Independents could not decide who to support, sprouting variations of both policies, it was only The Greens who believed that onshore processing was the way to go. It is almost hard to believe that Malaysia or Nauru were the hottest political news going around Canberra pre and post mid winter break in 2012.
Furthermore despite the ALP being very much poll driven <insert possible leadership spill here!> all throughout the 43rd parliament, it did start before that. According to polling data since pretty much late 2009, the popular support for Kevin Rudd and Labor has been in decline. Yes it spikes every now and again but only when a new favourable policy is introduced or passed and then only for a short time, nothing of significance. Not only has the move towards the middle of the political spectrum been in vain (see current opinion polls) it has had a adverse affect as all indications are that Labor are still as unpopular under Rudd and they were under Gillard, with reports out recently that Tony Abbott has overtaken Rudd as preferred PM!
Furthermore will it take another long period in Opposition for the Labor Party to rediscover its core voter base, or more so allow the ALP or reconnect with them? Will it take them a formal agreement with The Greens to dominate Federal Politics once more? And if this were to occur which party (ALP or Greens) would give up enough power and influence within the electorate to make the formation worthwhile? Or will Rudd be able to pull a number of rabbits out of the election hat and defy the polls and win outright? Only 5 sleeps to go!
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