The budget is approaching!

Since my last blog post so much has happened in the wonderful world of Australian Politics. It is hard to know when to start, the NDIS legislation has been in the news quite a bit as some States have signed on, including Tasmania. Also Tony Abbott released his Industrial Relations policy yesterday and Prime Minister Gillard went on the ABC's Q&A program on Monday night. However, given we have just entered into the month of May there are bigger fish to fry, and so, let me begin by telling you a little story. 

Wednesday just gone, was the May 8th. A year ago on May 8th saw Wayne Swan give his Budget Speech for 2012. The highlights we saw include; spending on Dental Care, the Tax free threshold increasing from $6000 to $18000 and the introduction of the School Kids Bonus $410 and $820 for primary and secondary students respectively. However we also saw cuts in Defence and Foreign Aid spending, decreases to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and further deferment on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG's). I remember that day like it was Yesterday.  

I had Australian and International Politics that fateful Tuesday, they sang Happy Budget day to me as it was my 17th Birthday and we had a Budget day cake. I remember being so very excited something major was happening on my birthday. But I also remember way too much from the budget papers as well. The next day I wrote that the narrative the Labor Party was trying to portray a 'fair go for all Australians' budget, and that it would be 'spreading the benefits of the [mining] boom around'. It was aimed at taking money from the people who had higher incomes and redistributing it to those who were not so fortunate.  The sticking themes within the Budget, were still to get it into surplus by 2013, and that the Clean Energy Futures legislation was not going to end the world. What I guess I am trying to say is, overall the Budget breakdown seemed quite optimistic given the uncertain economic times that laid ahead. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but my notes from the rest of the Budget week show even in May last year the Treasurer was concerned about a number of external factors. The high Australian dollar (which has still not fallen even after the RBA cut the Targeted Cash Rate again to 2.75% on Tuesday) was a issue, as was the Global Economic Outlook given the problems within some European Economies and the overall Global Slowdown on trade and exports. Therefore, it is with hesitant excitement I wait for next Tuesday night. 

Given the economic conditions have not really improved since last years Outlook,  all indications suggest that treasurer wayne swan has his work cut out for him. come tuesday night, he will try and convince the Australian public that the labor party is still the best option for government come september 14. furthermore as last years treasury predictions were highly optimistic many critics of the labor party will see tuesday nights budget as the nail in the coffin for an already dismal government. however that being said, advocates for the labor party hold their breath at what next wednesday will bring when the opposition leader tony abbott delivers his Budget Speech in reply. The 2012 Budget reply speech was more a speech on the labor party's downfalls rather than a position of alternative government. However, given all pols suggest a coalition wipeout come the election it will be interesting to see the differences in mr Abbott's speech from last year given the alternative government will more than likely be in power by the end of the year.

In the last few weeks, the Treasurer and the Labor Party have been on a path of trying to win support for their Budget. All indications suggest that it will be brutal and will begin to reflect the economic turmoil the rest of the world has seen since the GFC in 2008-09. While Australia for the most part came out unscathed from the GFC, our dealings with the rest of the world and poorer than expected economic figures really do fall in line with how most of the rest of the world have been feeling since going into recession. Polls show politically the fall out of not delivering a surplus will be huge for Labor, but will a Coalition Government be able to bring the Budget back to Surplus ASAP, while still repealing the 'Carbon Tax' and the MRRT? Unless they get a majority in both the Upper and Lower House the answer is probably not. But Nevertheless they will try. 

It is now only 4 sleeps to go until Parliament resumes and the Budget is introduced to the Lower House. So people get excited and HAPPY BUDGET DAY for Tuesday.